Confidence Levels

Assign confidence levels to all your estimates.

Hey friend

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Confidence levels are a great concept to use the next time you’re estimating.

When we estimate, we how long something will take.

Or how much it will cost.

However, to make this meaningful, we should also consider our confidence level in that estimate.

The sad truth is that most professionals never consider confidence levels.

For example, let’s say you estimate that completing a design will take three weeks. If your confidence level in that estimate is only 50%, the actual time required could vary significantly. It might take three weeks, but it could also take one week or even six weeks—you really have no idea with such a low confidence level.

So how do you make this better?

Next time you’re making an estimate, start by asking yourself:

What is my confidence level in this estimate?

Give it a percentage.

Once you’ve established that, the next step is to think about what you can do in the next few hours, days, or weeks to increase your confidence level.

• Do you need to consult an expert?

• Should you review similar designs from the past?

• Would writing a detailed report or analysis help?

There’s always something you can do to boost your confidence level.

If you can easily improve your confidence level in your estimates, you will take your work from so-so to outstanding.

In summary:

1. Make your estimate.

2. Assess your confidence level.

3. Identify simple, quick, and cost-effective ways to increase your confidence level.

See you next week.

Jonathan